FXUS66 KMTR 011006
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
306 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025
The pattern change begins today, as high pressure is squeezed out of
the picture. Sunday will bring cooler weather to the region after
our brief stint with early summer-like heat. Below normal high
temperatures are expected early into the work week, perhaps
moderating to near normal as early as midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025
Key Messages
-Pattern change and cool down today
Upper level troughing to our northwest will continue to deepen today
and enter northern CA while the cutoff low to the west of Baja
California drifts north and eastward. These systems will continue
to cut off our access to high pressure, leading to cooler weather
spreading over the region. Interior locations for the North Bay
and Central Coast will remain near normal for this time of year,
where highs will span the 80s. Elsewhere near normal to below
normal temperatures are expected as temperatures range from the
mid 50s to low 70s, with it being warmer as you go inland.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025
Key Messages
-Marine layer returns, more seasonal weather by mid to late week
-Small warm up possible by next weekend
The trough entering into northern CA on Sunday is forecast to become
a cutoff low late Sunday night into early Monday morning. This
system is expected to gradually slide down the CA coast on
Monday, making it to southern CA by Tuesday. As it does this, the
cutoff low from Baja gets ejected into the Desert Southwest.
Cooler weather remains in the forecast during this time frame,
with the marine layer making a return Sunday night into Monday
morning. There is some uncertainty as to how late Monday into
Tuesday looks. Some models try to spin a ribbon of moisture up
into our next of the woods as the low traverses south.
Additionallysome models throw some instability into this mix,
which support isolated thunderstorms. Confidence remains low to
add thunderstorms to the forecast at this point. There's a better
chance of seeing fair weather cu develop over our area rather than
thunderstorms at this time. Will need to keep an eye out on the
forecast to see if any additional CAMs tap into this solution.
Cooler to near seasonal weather is on tap through at least
midweek. We could see a small warm up by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 859 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025
Widespread VFR continues into the night. Winds reamin moderate to
breezy through the late afternoon and into the evening before
reducing. IFR CIGS reform along the coast and fill over the
terminals around the Monterey Bay in the late evening and into the
night. CIGS will fill at HAF and filter into the SF BAY,
affecting OAK into early Sunday. Pockets of mist and fog look to
build overnight long the coast, and Monterey Bay, with moments of
mist and inconsistent CIGs for the North Bay terminals. Widespread
VFR returns for Sunday afternoon as moderate to breezy winds
build. MVFR and IFR CIGs build along the coast and around the
Monterey Bay as winds ease into Sunday night. As winds reduce,
they look to turn southerly at SJC into Sunday night.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezes and gusts cut
off in the late evening with light to moderate winds expected
through the night. Spotty low clouds look to affect SFO, but do not
look to fill like at OAK into early Sunday. These clouds erode into
the late morning, with breezy to gusty winds arriving shortly after
into the mid afternoon. Winds are expected to become light again
into that evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lingers into the late evening, but LIFR
to LIFR CIGs will fill around the Monterey Bay into the night as
winds become lighter. Visibilities look to be affected by mist and
fog overnight around the Monterey Bay as CIGs continue to lower. VFR
returns in for SNS the mid morning while CIGs light to MVFR levels
for MRY, as visibilities improve. CIGs scatter at MRY into the
afternoon as winds begin to build around the Monterey Bay. MVFR
CIGs return into Sunday evening as winds begin to reduce.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025
Widespread strong to gale force gusts continue across the outer
waters through the early work week. The strongest winds will be
over the far northern outer waters where occasional storm force
gusts will be possible from Point Arena to Point Reyes. Rough
seas continue over the outer waters with significant wave heights
building to 10 to 15 feet across the southern outer waters and up
to 22 feet across the northern outer waters Sunday evening into
Monday morning. Winds gradually ease by Tuesday but significant
wave heights will remain elevated through late next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jun 1 04:30:03 PDT 2025
From the National Weather Service
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