FXUS66 KMTR 080507
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1007 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026
- Warming and drying trend will continue through the early part
of next week
- Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday
- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive
populations across the interior early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026
(This evening through Friday)
Low clouds are retreating to the coast as of early this afternoon
with sunny conditions returning to inland areas. Thus, maximum
temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low to upper 70s
across much of the interior Bay Area, low to upper 80s across the
interior Central Coast, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s in the
northwest facing coastal locations thanks to the depth of the
marine layer.
Stratus will once again return tonight and spread inland into the
interior valleys by Friday morning before retreating to the coast
by mid-to-late morning and early afternoon. Also, there is the
low end potential for coastal drizzle or mist tonight into Friday
morning. However, widespread rainfall highly unlikely. Friday, for
most locations, will be warmer by a few degrees compared to
today. Yet only expecting Minor HeatRisk across much of the
interior.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
The warming and drying trend will continue into the weekend and
peak on Monday of the upcoming workweek as high pressure over the
eastern Pacific builds westward. This is when more widespread
Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the interior. The relatively
cool overnight low temperatures will likely prevent us from
reaching higher categories of HeatRisk. However, in the hills and
higher elevations across the region, temperatures will remain warm
during the overnight period with 60s and a few 70s Monday night
into Tuesday morning. The marine layer and associated impacts will
begin to compress through the weekend, but not completely go
away. With this and onshore flow prevailing, conditions along the
northwest facing coastal locations will remain cooler compared to
inland locations. On Monday, afternoon temperatures are forecast
to reach the low to upper 90s across the interior with the
greatest potential to reach or exceed 100 degrees F being around
Pinnacles National Park (50%-65%) and the southern Salinas Valley
(20%-40%).
Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however
will still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The
cooling trend is currently forecast to continue into the middle of
next week as a more zonal flow returns as the ridge becomes
centered over the Desert Southwest. However, the Climate
Prediction Center maintains likely (roughly 60%) probability for
above normal temperatures to persist through days 6-10.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026
Another night of MVFR to IFR stratus is expected again tonight, with
stratus building along the coast and into the valleys. Stratus will
continue to build into the region tonight, with stratus clearing
late tomorrow morning. Though there could be lingering stratus
into the early afternoon for some sites. VFR conditions should
prevail into the afternoon and into the evening. The marine layer
tonight and into tomorrow morning is expected to be around
1500-1800ft. It is expected 1200-1000ft by tomorrow evening and
into Saturday morning. So stratus arrival might be a little
delayed tomorrow evening.
Vicinity of SFO...MVFR to IFR cigs are expected tonight and will
clear by late morning. Winds may remain gusty with 18-22kt gusts
expected over the next couple of hours, with 10-15kt winds expected
overnight. Tomorrow, as cigs clear onshore flow returns. Expect
breezy westerly winds around 15kt with gusts up to 25-30kt expected
from 21Z to 4Z. There is some uncertainty if stratus will make it to
SFO tomorrow night. Some guidance has this occuring around 9z, opted
to hint at the possibility instead of locking in on it.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has returned this evening, which is
accompanied with onshore flow. MVFR to IFR cigs are expected through
the overnight hours, with cigs lifting late tomorrow morning. Gusty
onshore winds return for the afternoon, especially around KSNS where
they may get up to 15kt. Stratus should return to the southern half
of Monterey Bay.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1007 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026
Fresh to strong northwest breezes will persist through the
weekend with steadily building rough seas. The rough seas will
begin to ease late Sunday into Monday, which is winds begin to
decrease to moderate to fresh northerly breezes.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10
nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu May 7 22:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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