Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 230437
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
937 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

 - Temperatures near to slightly above seasonal averages through
   the week

 - Dry weather through the 7 day outlook

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
(This evening through Monday)

The region is generally clear with a few high clouds. A more zonal 
(east to west) flow pattern in the upper levels is promoting an 
onshore wind and a slightly expanded marine layer around 1000 ft 
thick, with the end result being that the immediate coast sees 
temperatures close to the seasonal average with highs in the lower 
to middle 60s while the interior valleys remain rather warm, as 
highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s keep those regions around 10 to 
15 degrees above the seasonal averages. Some low clouds are possible 
at the immediate coast early Monday morning, with morning lows 
ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s in the lower elevations to 
the middle 50s to the lower 60s in the higher elevations. 

On Monday, a low-amplitude ridge will develop over the state, with 
the overall impacts remaining relatively minor as temperatures 
remain within a few degrees of today's highs. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

The low-amplitude ridge continues to develop through the early part 
of next week, before slowly moving off to the east beginning 
Wednesday into Friday. This will keep the temperatures relatively 
warm for this time of year, but relatively cool when compared to 
last week's record-breaking heat. Conditions remain generally stable 
through the 7-day outlook with onshore flow during the afternoons 
and evenings, highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s in the inland 
valleys, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. 
Ensemble model cluster analysis continues to show a second broad, 
low-amplitude trough developing this weekend, although an embedded 
short-wave trough will mediate the impacts. The cluster analysis 
also shows the next chances for rain arriving for the last couple 
days of March into the first days of April, with increasing 
probabilities for scattered light rain across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with high clouds streaming in
overhead. High confidence on VFR through the TAF period. Low 
probability for sub-VFR conditions returning to the terminals 
tonight with the relatively greatest potential at HAF, MRY, and 
SNS. Onshore winds will prevail. Haze will reduce slant range 
visibilities.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High 
confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will 
prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Low confidence on the
return of IFR conditions to the terminals tonight; if they do
return, it will likely be brief and/or intermittent in the 12Z-16Z
time frame. Onshore winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Strong northerly winds will slowly begin to diminish tonight with
moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes prevailing Monday and
Tuesday. Widespread hazardous marine conditions return Wednesday
with strong to near gale northerly breezes and rough to very
rough seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Mar 22 22:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service