Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 111006
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
306 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025

 - Moderate HeatRisk for portions of the East and South Bay on Friday
   with localized pockets elsewhere across the North Bay and 
   Central Coast. 


 - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across higher
   elevations.

 - Gradual cooling trend this weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery and profiler data show that the marine layer 
remains compressed around 1000 feet, with stratus confined to the 
coastal areas and in the Salinas Valley. Expect this to remain hold 
with stratus retreating to the coast by mid to late morning. Another 
warm and dry day is then on tap, with high temperatures peaking in 
the upper 80s to 90s for most interior locations. Conditions will be 
cooler by the coast or where influenced by stratus, with highs 
varying from the upper 50s to low 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)

No major changes to the forecast this period as upper level ridging 
looks to hold into early next week. That means we can expect to see 
a fairly repetitive forecast, with onshore flow leading to cooling 
trend this weekend and into early next week. Upper level troughing 
looks to dip back into the forecast mid week, which should usher in 
additional cooling and potentially deepen the marine layer. Expect 
daily cloudy nights and mornings, with clouds receding to the coast 
each afternoon. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025

IFR and LIFR CIGS are building along the coast and are affecting HAF 
and the Monterey Bay Terminals with mist and drizzle affecting the 
immediate coast and slightly inland terminals. IFR CIGs arrive at 
APC in the late night and LIFR CIGs and fog affect STS into the 
morning. Inconsistent IFR CIGs will move around the SF Bay in the 
late night and into Friday morning, affecting SFO and OAK. Fog will 
also form around the MRY into Friday morning. Clearing begins in the 
mid morning with most TAF sites going VFR in the mid to late 
morning. The exception will be HAF, which keeps CIGs through the TAF 
period. Winds look to stay light to moderate through much of the 
morning, but will increase into the late morning morning and 
afternoon. Expect winds to reduce into Friday evening with IFR/LIFR 
CIGs returning to the coast along with drizzle and fog.

Vicinity of SFO...Light to moderate winds last through the light. 
IFR-level clouds shift through the SF BAY in the late night, and 
look to inconsistently fill over SFO and OAK before exiting into 
early Friday. Breezy west winds return in the late morning, and look 
to last through the mid evening before becoming light again. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR CIGs and light winds last through the 
mid morning with pockets of mist and drizzle affecting visibilities. 
Moments of fog also look to affect MRY. Winds become moderate into 
mid Friday morning as CIGs erode over the terminals, but expect 
cloud cover to linger over the Monterey Bay itself until the mid 
afternoon. Winds reduce into Friday evening as IFR/LIFR CIGs
return.&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 522 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Strong northerly breezes over the outer waters will continue
through Saturday with the most hazardous conditions in the far
northwestern portion with gale force gusts and very rough seas.
Sunday and Monday will have a gentle breeze with moderate to
rough seas.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A fresh northwesterly breeze continues over the outer waters
through today. Winds gradually diminish into the weekend with
breezy diurnal winds along immediate coastal regions. Moderate
seas continue through the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Behringer

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jul 11 04:30:03 PDT 2025
From the National Weather Service